Here’s What Parliament Wants From Super Saturday
- Liam John
- Oct 19, 2019
- 4 min read
Updated: Nov 28, 2019
Super Saturday is upon us and I’m sure we will all have the Brexit we deserve. Every party will be going into parliament with their ideas on how Brexit should be carried out and the country run. At the time of writing, the Letwin amendment has passed. This will force the Prime Minister to seek an extension and – if he’s a man of his word – die in a ditch. If the last three years have taught us anything, and I don’t believe they have, it’s that we can no longer predict the outcome of votes in British politics. With that in mind, here is a run-down of the possible outcomes all the parties want and why nothing is likely to happen, but something technically must.
The Lord Sugar Exit Labour Brexit: A Labour Majority.
We have an election and get a Labour majority, this unlikely outcome would see Labour able to refuse a Scottish referendum (whether they would or not is up for debate) and negotiate a new Brexit deal and put it back to the public in a referendum. Lord Sugar says if we get a Corbyn government he will leave Britain and Jeremy Corbyn will be staying on for the next general election. Lord Sugar can be safe in the knowledge that this approach will not win over anyone except labour member and MPs.
Supported by: Some but not the entirety of Labour.
Schrödinger’s Brexit: The Johnson Deal.
This cautious Tory party favourite has gained support in England but is expected to lose the DUP and SNP in this weekend’s vote. It is called Schrödinger’s Brexit after Schrödinger’s Cat because of plans to replace the Northern Irish backstop proposal and set in place a new arrangement where Northern Ireland would be aligned with the EU’s Customs Union while remaining in the U. K’s Custom Territory. Neither in-nor-out. The European Research Group (ERG), a militantly pro-Brexit group within the Tory party led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, have said they will vote in favour of the deal. This will help the government legitimise the deal to Brexit party voters and win support in the House of Commons. Until now Yellowhammer-Upon-Thames has been their top pick. Due to the Letwin amendment, even if this passes the Prime Minister must seek an extension.
Supported by: Conservative, probably Labour pro-Brexit rebels, ERG.
Yellowhammer-Upon-Thames: The ERG’s pick.
Until this week the most likely outcome. It would essentially see Britain crash out of the European Union with limited preparations in place. The effects of which were outlined in the leaked Operation Yellowhammer. There is a certain Libertarian wing of the Conservative party who would see an opportunity to create a low-tax pro-business utopia, not unlike Singapore, where we see food shortages and ferry queues. This has sent the term ‘Singapore-Upon-Thames‘ into circulation. Jacob Rees-Mogg described a doctor’s advice to the government on a No Deal Brexit that “people will die as “fear-mongering” and insisted that no one would die as a direct result of No-Deal, he also questioned whether the doctor was abusing his position to spread project fear. He later apologised for the comments. This approach could easily win over the current Tory leadership but unites all other parties (except the Brexit party) in opposition.
Supported by: The ERG, The Tory leadership, the Brexit party and much of the Conservative party.
Lib-Lab pact: and other Liberal Consensus Governments.
This is an outcome that appears more likely every time we edge towards Yellowhammer-Upon-Thames territory. It started with the Government of National Unity and when that fantasy turned in to a nightmare, a coalition government became a political elephant in the room. The Labour leadership have suggested that they may be willing to work with the Scottish Nationalist Party and Greens, this would require some concessions to be made on holding a Scottish Independence referendum. For this idea to get off the ground, likely, they would also need the support of the Liberal Democrats. Lib Dem leader Joe Swinson has said that she will not work with Labour so often that it now looks unlikely that she can go back on these statements. However, she has been outspoken in her criticism of Corbyn in particular, leaving open the possibility that she may work with another Labour leader if he was to be replaced. Now that Labour has confirmed Corbyn will be staying on for the next election, it is unlikely that we will see a Lib Dem, Labour coalition.
Supported by anti-Corbyn Labour MPs and the Greens, The SNP and less than half, but still a significant amount of Labour members.
So, what do the Liberal Democrats want?
Revoke and Remain: Repress and then regress.
Let’s hear it for the status quo, this wacky scheme from Britain’s former-third place party see’s the result of the 2016 election, where 17.4m people voted for change, overruled and the article 50 revoked. The biggest issue pre-summer 19’ for the People’s Vote campaign was that the Remain side’s message of “we told you so” wasn’t landing. The Liberal Democrat leader Joe Swinson responded not by making a strong case for Remain to appeal to those who disagree with her but by taking away the option to choose in a painfully Lib Dem move. If we have a Liberal Democrat majority, an outcome that seems impossible, but the leader insists is the only option they will accept, they will revoke article 50 without putting it to the public and take us back to 2012.
Supported by: Most Liberal Democrats voters and members, and if the Lib Dems’ are to be believed, voters across the United Kingdom.
Only an idiot, or at least an experienced political commentator, would be willing to get their crystal ball out today and make predictions on the first Saturday session of the House of Commons in 37 years. Everyone is crying out for Brexit to be over but is utterly perplexed by the idea that they might have to shift from the Brexit position they’ve militantly assumed. I just want to reiterate the point that we will get the Brexit we deserve, The Letwin amendment may be giving us what we deserve – another; 3 or 6, months or years, of purgatory until this parliament can make a decision or we elect one that can.
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